There were at least 3 kids state champs staying home from the 4a west regional. (all from Russell and all Freshmen)
Schumacher, Rogers and Floyd place high in any class.
5 and 6a are probably the toughest to win but you are already taking 50%. One more round and you could just take all 32.
You cannot control everything but you have some control over where you live or at least which school your kid attends