Hello, friends! This is Prant, coming to you from a computer that frowns upon posting on forums of any kind. And because I'm too poor to buy my own computer, I'll just have to post to you through our good buddy Jhris and his hamburger for now.

Earlier this evening, Aaron Sweazy posted about how 18% of wrestlers in 6a place at state. This, along with the never-ending debate of "which class is hardest?" got me thinking...And because I have no life, these are some rough statistics that I came up with.

And the hardest class statistically is:
(**Drumroll please**)

6A!!!! Now here are the numbers which back up my claim, and should forever end the "Which class is hardest?" debate.

6A has approximately 37982 students, while 5A has 23024, 4a 21264, and 321 approximately 29211 potential wrestlers. Let's assume half of those students are boys. The breakdown is like this:

6A: 18911 boys
5A: 11512 boys
4A: 10632 boys
321a: 14611 boys

That means (assuming only boys wrestle), that if someone-let's call him Prant Jr.-- moved from out of state and could select from any school, any classification, the breakdown would be this:

6A: 448 available varsity spots (32 schools x 14 weights)
5A: 448 available varsity spots (32 schools x 14 weights)
4A: 896 available varsity spots (64 schools x 14 weights)
321A: 3374 available varsity spots (241 schools x 14 weights)

With both of the above statistics and using the formula (available varsity spots/# of boys), if Prant Jr. selects a school from any classification, he has the following probability of making varsity:

6A: 2.4%
5A: 3.9%
4A: 8.4%
321A: 23.1%

That's almost a 1 in 4 chance of making varsity at a 321a school! But have no fear, 321a guys, your class is very hard to place at state! But let's look at little Prant Jr.'s options for making it to state first.

Let's take all those boys and divide that by the number of available spots at state--(in 6a's case 18991 boys/448 available state qualifiers and in 321a's case 14611 boys/448 available sq's) and we get the percentage of Prant Jr. qualifying for state, assuming he still has a choice of school classification.

6A: 2.4%
5A: 3.9%
4A: 4.21%
321A: 3.1%

That means statistically, 6A is the hardest class to make it to state, followed by 321a. Sorry, 4a, you guys are last--but not by much, so it's okay.

There are 84 available state medals for each classification. Using the above statistics for boys, and dividing the available medals by the available participants (84 medals/# of boys), we find out the percentage of boys in each class who actually gain a state medal.

6A: .44%
5A: .73%
4A: .79%
321A: .57%

And there we have it, folks! If Prant Jr. has a choice of any classification, he not only has the worst statistical chance of making it on varsity in 6A, but also in making it to state AND placing. 321a comes in 2nd, 5a in third (ha, yeah right), and 4a comes in last.

Now, if you were Prant Jr., what class would YOU pick? Certainly not 6a. You might not even make it out of the mat room there...

So with all do respect, Mr. Sweazy, your math IS wrong. Maybe now that I have wasted all this time, we can shut up. All you guys who think little schools have such a hard time at state- shut your cake hole. I'm no math major so this might not be exactly accurate (a few are averaged), but I think this proves my point. No class is harder than another--but if you want to go by math....well then. You have your answer.

Thanks, and have fun on the forum!

-Prant

Yea...you'd think with that many "boys" in a big school that up in 6a you all would be able to field a full bracket at a regional...harder to qualify is a joke...Destrick Lee had a bye one year and even in a loss would have been cross bracketed to a double bye putting him in the conso championships and thus going to state not winning jack at regionals.

Also while you are doing well in math...figure out the % of 6a guys as compared to all the other classifications that qualified for state with a losing record...I'm sure the big schools will be tops in that category as well.

Sweazy, if you think about it, there is quite the dilemma in front of us. You're not getting Prant's point. Yes, it is easier at regionals to advance. But, it's a lot harder to make it out of the mat room. I don't think that you would have been varsity at 3/4 of the 6a schools. That is why 6a and 5a as well are just as hard. AND, Destrick was a state champ, making his state championship valid. It's not like he got lucky by making the finals and pinning his guy.

Duh.

But at the same time do tournament directors not know how to format a round robin in case of a weak weight class? to tell me getting out of the room is tough in 6a/5a etc is tougher isn't always valid, as some of those teams can't even field full teams with the #s you have in your school's enrollment

Don't try to tell me that every smaller school fields a full team...
I would be willing to bet that the percentage of small schools (4321a) without full teams is a lot higher than the percentage of big schools (65a).

Well duh, with the staggering enrollment and only 64 combined schools you might be right.

But all of these stats really can't be valid because 18911 boys don't all go out for wrestling in 6a. There is swimming, basketball, and whatever else is offered...plus non participants and the validity is even less

But ... I think the real question is ... where is Prant Jr. going to school at?

Exactly!!! He's going to 4A because statisticlly it is easier to make varsity and place at state in 4A than any other class.

Also because he wants to be just like the Swayz.

You have used your view of the statistics to create your comparison lets look at it another way.

6A: 448 available varsity spots (32 schools x 14 weights)
5A: 448 available varsity spots (32 schools x 14 weights)
4A: 896 available varsity spots (64 schools x 14 weights)
321A: 3374 available varsity spots (241 schools x 14 weights)

Now just for fun I will round some numbers and say that at a 6a and 5a school you should have about 4 kids per weight which means that you have 56 kids on a team times 32 teams. 4A we will say has 3 kids per weight, which means you have 42 wrestlers time’s 64 teams. We will say that every 321A team has exactly a full lineup so 14 per team times

6A: 1792 wrestlers
5A: 1792 wrestlers
4A: 2688 wrestlers
321A: 3374 wrestlers

Available number of varsity spots divided by number of wrestlers
6A: 25% chance of making varsity
5A: 25% chance of making varsity
4A: 33% Chance of making varsity
321A: 100% Chance of making varsity

So the hardest class is 6A and 5A then 4A and last is 321A to make varsity

Now there are 16 people in each weight that make state so there are 224 people that make it to state in each class. 224 divided by the number of wrestlers in each class.

6A: 12.5% chance of making state
5A: 12.5% Chance of making state
4A: 8.3 % Chance of making state
3A: 6.6% Chance of making state

So according to my calculations it is harder for 321A wrestlers to make state and if I were Prant Jr. I would wrestle in a 6a or 5A school because it is easier.

Yes, but if you take the graduation rate of 321A and add the probability of making a 6A varsity spot, then permutate the odds of placing at 4A state, you get a 100% chance that this is a dumb-A conversation.

Here are some hard number calculations that pretty well wrap up the argument. according to Prant's argument, the situation at Manhattan high, with 1327 students, poses a much more monumental task of getting one of the 14 spots on the varsity that the smaller schools, making the situation there much tougher. Well lets take those 1327 enrolled students and see what we get in NW Kansas. that will take in Colby (269), Goodland (236), Scott City (227), Oakley (135),
Oberlin(121) St. Francis (105) Hoxie (100), Atwood,(83). these are all the schools in the area that have a wrestling program, none left out.
I wasn't sure whether to include Scott city in the mix, as they are south, so if you like you can take the next team west-- Norton.
Manhattan still has the advantage, as the combination of these schools is only 1276 total enfollment. If you look at the wrestlers at their respective wieghts and wrestle them against Manhattan high, the only matches manhattan would win would be Woodford at 112, shilling at 135, and Chris at 215, I gave only 3 point decisions to the west guys except for Gilliland and Bedore,And a pin to chris over Horenik, which I doubt would happen, but I am trying to be fair.
Came up with 42 to 18.that's how much tougher a 1 through 4 a student is than a 6a student.
OR: Manhattan produces 1 awsome undefeated wrestler with 1327 students. Atwood does it with 83, Goodland with 236.
OR
with 13.27 TIMES as many students to draw from,
Manhattan is not able to beat hoxie at the beloit tourney. When you look at numbers, you can put together quite an all star team from 3a or 4a with less kids than the average 6a school has to choose from. the numbers are not as great in the smaller schools, but the teams are just as tough.

OK Mike.

Now take all of those kids from those 8 different teams and put them all on one team. You just kicked 98 kids off of varsity and alot of them would have placed at state this year. huh.

interesting senario.....its not what you do during the season, but rather what you do during the off season, no matter who you are or where youre from ....i know of jv guys in 321-a that could make varsity in a 5-a or 6a school... but there are not a lot of jv guys in 321-a, since most schools are open at some wieghts or are only 1 deep....but not to take anything away, from anyone or any program, kansas wrestling just keeps getting tougher and tougher....and that suits me just fine...

i have seen horinek, atwood 215, wrestle, he is quite the specimen, and he played with a monster from nebraska last weeknend that i thought would give him a match...wrong!

never having the benefit of seeing the manhattan 215 wreslte... i couldnt say who would come out on top...we need to have grand state come back into play...perhaps they will meet in the east/ west dual?

What does 215 have to do with anything?

The argument of making one great wrestler out of however many kids at a school isn't all that valid. Just think of how many other great athletes throughout a 6A or a 5A school are lost to other sports, i.e. swimming or basketball. If you eliminate those two sports from the curriculum, has anyone ever heard about the Hoxie basketball team?, and everyone focuses on wrestling then I'm sure that 6A and 5A schools would begin to produce many more studs.

Prant or anyone trying to prove their point by statistics: they is no right way to prove this fact accuretly because I've taken statistics and there is many ways to manipulate the outcome for any type of statistics problem. So everyone can give up on this because there is no right answer here... at least there is no right answer that can be proved by statistics. I think 4a is the toughest myself but everyone has their own oppinion.

6A rules, everyone else drools....

You guys are posting some interesting points so I will give you some more. 4a only has 60 schools who have wrestling. 3a, (I believe) only has 37 and the rest are 2a on down with a total of 80 teams with wrestling. I would have to check 5a and 6a to see if any of the schools do not have wrestling. One reason I think the smaller schools have an advantage is the coach to wrestler ratio and also the # of students at school. I'm sure 6a schools have some very talented kids that never see the mat where as if Coach Baker (Hoxie) see's some stud looking kid walking around school, he is gonna make sure he is part of the team. The smaller school wrestlers may get a little more individual attention where a large club may not. Anyway, I enjoy all Kansas kids when I see or read about them but I would bet if you line up a quad meet with the state champs 321a vs. 5a and 4a vs. 6a You all might be surprised who would win. I would have to go with 4a this year but not every year. Happy Wrestling, Kirk